Big Money, Big Disappointment, Big Mouth

The $103 million gamble by the name of Daisuke Matsuzaka is now blaming the Red Sox workout program for his recent pitching struggles. Dice-K, who makes insane money thanks to the 2006 bidding war and pissing contest with the Yankees, has for his three seasons in the Majors been an often over-rated player. He had a season in 2008 that, by the numbers, was spectacular as he earned 18 wins and had a 2.90 ERA. Throughout the season, however, I expressed fear of his pitching to anyone who would listen; he was getting it done, but I couldn't figure out how. He rarely made it out of the sixth inning and always had runners on base. He seemed afraid to pitch from the stretch and looked very uncomfortable with men on base, and he was often, rightly I think, criticized for being too fine; he was simply afraid to pitch for contact. But he kept getting the job done (though not without taxing the bullpen) so my criticisms seemed, even to me, unfair.

This year, on the other hand, he has posted an abysmal 8.23 ERA and was 1-5 before being placed on the DL with shoulder soreness, a condition which he apparently blames on the Red Sox. According to WEEI, who translated a Japanese newspaper interview with Dice-K, the pitcher thinks that the Red Sox workout program is hindering his performance. He told the paper,

"If I’m forced to continue to train in this environment, I may no longer be able
to pitch like I did in Japan,” Matsuzaka said. “The only reason why I managed to
win games during the first and second years (in the U.S.) was because I used the
savings of the shoulder I built up in Japan" (Boston Herald)

Really? The only reason he doesn't pitch here like he did in Japan is because the Sox strengthening program is deficient? I'm not so sure. Let's look at some other reasons that Dice-K may be having problems here.

1) Uh, duh, this isn't Japan. Dice-K got a lot of criticism in the Japanese media when he first came to the states because he wasn't pitching complete games like he did in Japan. This was of course unfair to Dice-K, for the same reason that Dice-K may be having a hard time getting batters out here. Hitters are better in the Major Leagues than they are in Japan. This may seem like an obvious point, superfluous for this discussion, but Dice-K seems to be forgetting, or neglecting, this truth in his Japanese interviews. Without a doubt, the Japanese leagues are gaining legitimacy, but they are not the Major Leagues. After all, Japan is where players go when they realize they are never going to make it above AAA in the states and they want the bigger contracts that the Japanese Leagues can offer compared to the minors over here.

2) Here, Dice-K must pitch every five days. In Japan, where games are never played on Sunday and most teams work on a six man rotation, pitchers will generally pitch only once a week. With this type of schedule, it is clear how Dice-K would be able to pitch complete games. More time to heal after each start + mediocre hitters = pitching dominance.

3) The final reason is, imagine the audacity, his own pitching. When Dice-K first came to the states, many hitters were perplexed by him. His style was curious (though not as curious as his countryman who was brought with him, Hedeki Okajima), he was deceptive, he had a lot of different pitches, and there were rumors that he threw a version of the screw-ball, a mythical pitch with unearthly, physics defying movement that may or may not actually exist, and which no one can actually explain how to throw. But it only takes big league pitchers so long to scout a pitcher, learn how he pitches in certain situation, and begin to see his pitches better. In this case, it seems to have taken two years. Dice-K blames "ethnic, racial, and physiological differences" that require different conditioning for causing Japanese pitchers to fade after a couple of seasons in the states. Here again, he seems to forget about big league hitters. Japanese pitchers' problems must be because Japanese are built differently, not because their stuff isn't nearly as dominant against big league hitters as it was against Japanese hitters. Furthermore, Dice-K has shown an intense fear of throwing strikes. He tries to paint the corners and throw out of the strike zone in an attempt to get batters to chase. the problem is, he has not shown that he has dominant stuff inside the the strike zone so hitters have learned not to swing at his junk and wait for a pitch in the zone. If a pitcher can't throw strikes, hitters always have the advantage.

So, Dice-K's problem is likely less about the way he's being conditioned (by a program that has developed Jonathan Papelbon, Jon Lester, and Clay Buchholz) and more about his ability to pitch in the Major Leagues. I'm convinced that the Red Sox mistake was not in the way that they have developed him, but in the amount they were willing to pay - $103 million for a mediocre number three starter.